The week’s file
Atlanta was still evaluating Tagovailoa in its quarterback group.
An immediate-start decision needs a confirmed role. The supplied roster explanation leaves that question open rather than answering it through a fantasy number.
Every one of the top twelve forecasts overlaps its neighbour. A rank is a mean, not a promise.
The twelve highest expected PPR totals among 463 Week 1 forecasts. The dot is the expected total, the bar runs from the 15th to the 85th percentile, and the tick is the median. Captured Sep 5, 4:13 PM ET.
Read the numbers
| Player | Floor | Median | Expected | Ceiling | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12.1 | 21.3 | 22.9 | 34.1 | 99% |
| Justin Herbert | 11.7 | 21.2 | 22.2 | 32.7 | 98% |
| Joe Burrow | 11.0 | 20.8 | 21.4 | 31.6 | 98% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9.8 | 19.6 | 21.3 | 33.6 | 98% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9.0 | 19.0 | 20.6 | 32.4 | 99% |
| Jared Goff | 10.2 | 18.7 | 20.5 | 30.6 | 99% |
| Derrick Henry | 9.1 | 18.6 | 20.1 | 31.0 | 98% |
| Tyler Shough | 9.2 | 18.3 | 19.8 | 30.2 | 99% |
| Lamar Jackson | 9.8 | 19.0 | 19.7 | 29.9 | 98% |
| Jalen Hurts | 10.2 | 19.0 | 19.7 | 29.7 | 95% |
| Josh Allen | 8.1 | 18.4 | 19.7 | 30.8 | 95% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 9.2 | 17.9 | 19.6 | 30.7 | 97% |
32 briefs, newest first: 13 new situations, 3 availability updates, 4 unsettled roles, 12 players on watch. Each one links the report it rests on.
Ke'Shawn Williams
Williams earned a place on Cincinnati’s roster.
Michael WilsonArizona signed Wilson to a contract extension.
Anthony RichardsonIndianapolis named Richardson its backup quarterback.
Greg DortchBuffalo’s team report introduces Dortch’s new opportunity.
AJ DillonCarolina is finding a role for Dillon in its backfield.
Michael Penix Jr.Atlanta’s roster report left the quarterback evaluation open.
Tua TagovailoaAtlanta was still evaluating Tagovailoa in its quarterback group.
Bryce OliverCleveland signed Oliver to its practice squad.
Jonnu SmithSmith is getting acclimated in Green Bay’s tight-end group.
Kenyon SadiqThe Jets highlighted Sadiq’s preparations for his rookie season.
Emari DemercadoDemercado has a new opportunity in Dallas.
Jaydon BluePhiladelphia added Blue to its practice squad.
Braelon AllenAllen worked with the starters while Breece Hall was sidelined.
Cameron LatuNew England claimed Latu off waivers.
Adonai MitchellThe Jets’ latest Mitchell feature centers on preparation.
Jarquez HunterHunter joined Miami’s practice squad after the trade.
Dillon GabrielA team report says Cleveland sent Gabriel to injured reserve.
James ConnerArizona placed Conner on injured reserve with a return designation.
Hunter LongArizona acquired Long in a trade.
Quinn EwersJacksonville agreed to acquire Ewers from Miami.
Keenan AllenAllen contributed a reception in Indianapolis’s preseason finale.
Corey KinerKiner has been traded from Arizona to New England.
Jeremy RuckertRuckert is part of a crowded Jets tight-end group.
Jalen MilroeSeattle highlighted Milroe’s strongest preseason performance yet.
Makai LemonPhiladelphia described Lemon’s preseason debut as a learning experience.
Fernando MendozaThe Raiders framed Mendoza’s preseason outing as a development step.
Quentin JohnstonJohnston caught a long touchdown in the Chargers’ preseason finale.
Tutu AtwellThe Rams agreed to bring Atwell back in a trade.
Calvin Austin IIIThe Giants placed Austin on injured reserve with a torn ACL.
Rashod BatemanBateman led Baltimore’s offense in a joint-practice report.
Tyler GoodsonGoodson made a positive impression in Atlanta’s camp report.
Xavier HutchinsonHutchinson drew attention in Houston’s final home camp practice.
No matching briefs. Try another player or position.
Only eleven of 240 players have both a top-tier floor and a top-tier ceiling.
One dot per Week 1 forecast among the 240 players expected to score at least five PPR points. Fainter dots are less likely to play. Top tier means the 95th percentile: a floor of at least 8.9 and a ceiling of at least 29.7. They are Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Herbert, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Jared Goff, Tyler Shough, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. A close matchup wants the floor; an underdog wants the ceiling.
Read the numbers
| Player | Floor | Median | Expected | Ceiling | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12.1 | 21.3 | 22.9 | 34.1 | 99% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9.8 | 19.6 | 21.3 | 33.6 | 98% |
| Justin Herbert | 11.7 | 21.2 | 22.2 | 32.7 | 98% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9.0 | 19.0 | 20.6 | 32.4 | 99% |
| Joe Burrow | 11.0 | 20.8 | 21.4 | 31.6 | 98% |
| Derrick Henry | 9.1 | 18.6 | 20.1 | 31.0 | 98% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 9.2 | 17.9 | 19.6 | 30.7 | 97% |
| Jared Goff | 10.2 | 18.7 | 20.5 | 30.6 | 99% |
| Tyler Shough | 9.2 | 18.3 | 19.8 | 30.2 | 99% |
| Lamar Jackson | 9.8 | 19.0 | 19.7 | 29.9 | 98% |
| Jalen Hurts | 10.2 | 19.0 | 19.7 | 29.7 | 95% |
The record
463forecasts stamped
307abstentions, never scored as zero
0results scored so far
Every Week 1 number above was captured Sep 5, 4:13 PM ET, ahead of the first kickoff at Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET. When the games are final, the results are appended beside the original forecasts, misses included. Inspect the archive.